Most experts agree that San Diego State’s 6′-4″ flame throwing righty Steven Strasburg will be the number one overall pick by the Washington Nationals. He has been labeled a “can’t miss” guy. But is the number one overall guy is usually more strikeout than hit?
2008 – Tim Beckham SS – TB
Certainly to early to tell with Beckham, he is only 19 and has advanced to A ball this season after hitting .246 with a 44/15 K to BB ratio last season in rookie and short season ball. His average is up this year at .277 but he still showing he needs to work on his plate discipline with a 34/8 K to BB ratio.
Verdict – Foul Tip, to early to tell
2007 – David Price P – TB
Most remember Price’s appearance in last seasons World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies. He is certainly one of the top 2 or 3 prospects in the game right now and very close to coming back up to the bigs but is currently being a bit wild in Durham sporting a 3.97 ERA and a 1.94 K/BB ratio. Those certainly aren’t bad numbers but after his brief big league performance most were expecting more out of him, just a product of being #1.
Verdict – Long Foul Ball, still to early as well
2006 – Luke Hochevar P -KC
Hochevar just had his first major league start May 10th and it certainly was a false start, he gave up 8 runs in just two innings. In his work at AAA Omaha he was playing extremly well, 5-0 with an 0.90 ERA and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. It still remains to be seen if he can do it in the bigs but he has time, he is only 25 yet.
Verdict – 3-1, working the count but we need to see something
2005 – Justin Upton SS – ARI
At just 21 Upton is still developing and has spent parts of now 3 seasons in the bigs putting together a .267 average in 658 at bats with a 111 OPS+ so he is certainly playing quite well at a young age. The Baseball Prospectus put him in the same discussion with Ken Griffey Jr’s big league start. This is exactly what you want out of a number one overall pick, this kid has star written all over him.
Verdict – Stand up triple off the wall
2004 – Matthew Bush SS – SD
Bush is exactly opposite of Upton, he has been a complete disaster. He is pretty much a John Van Benschoten in reverse only worse. He came out as a SS but after legal issues and poor play in 2007 he was moved to pitching and has fared ok but not exactly good either, he doesnt even appear in the top 30 prospects anymore. This is a poster child for a bad pick in a bad year and has set the Padres back severely, they could of had Justin Verlander, Jeff Niemann, or Jeremy Sowers.
Verdict – Three pitch strikeout
2003 – Delmon Young RF – TB
Young is a poster child for a bad case of entitlement, after appearing in all 162 games in 07 the Rays were more than happy to trade him and his head case issues to the Minnesota Twins. He was pretty average last season with an OPS+ of 102. He also has been pretty bad so far this season with an absolutely terrible OPS+ of 57 in 102 AB. Let’s also not forget the umpire bat incident.
Verdict – Weak grounder to second, quickly looking like a big time bust.
2002 – Bryan Bullington P – PIT
At 28 he has only appeared in 13 games, a selection based on signability the bucs passed on BJ Upton, Prince Fielder, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, and Scott Kazmir to take Bullington. He has since bounced from the Pirates to the Cleveland Indians, and is now with the Toronto Blue Jays and is not pitching very well and has only appeared in 4 games with 5 strike outs and 6 walks.
Verdict – Strike out looking
2001 – Joe Mauer C – MIN
Mauer is simply a beast, a 2 time all star, gold glove winner, and 2 time batting champ. He is a cornerstone of the Minnesota Twins, enough said…
Verdict – Home Run
2000 – Adrian Gonzalez 1B – Florida
Gonzalez is one of the few bright spots on the San Diego Padres where he landed after a wrist injury saw him bounced to the Texas Rangers and then to the Padres. He established himself as a growing star in 2008 with his first all star appearance and should continue to be a fixture at 1B for years to come
Verdict – Driven double into the gap on an 0-2 pitch.
So going back to the turn of the century we are just 3 for 6 with 3 to be determined. The number one overall pick can be franchise changing ala Joe Mauer or franchise crippling ala Bryan Bullington. No matter how much they look over these guys they are still only successful about half the time, just something to keep in mind as you keep hearing about Strasburg being a can’t miss guy…